A United Ireland Referendum Cannot Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Analysts Warn

A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."